Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
